A law firm starts posting social content. A healthcare practice starts updating its Facebook and Instagram. An accounting firm starts sending regular emails. A clinic launches a podcast. An engineering firm finally updates its site after five years.

In each case, the results are…probably not much.

Flatline.

Whatever uptick the efforts caused, the momentum fades. And leadership says: “We tried marketing this or that way. It didn’t work.”

Let’s pause there. What were you expecting? It’s noisy out there and no one really cares if you updated your site or started posting more content. Until…they see that YOU care. Until they see consistency.

Ever tried a new diet or fitness plan, only to quit after a month saying, ‘That didn’t work’?

Marketing in a noisy world is no different. It takes clarity and creativity, yes. But without consistency your message will NEVER break through the noise with the level of signal required.

Enter: Regression to the Mean

This is a statistical principle with major real-world implications. It simply says this:

Outliers return to average over time. That lucky streak? That unusually viral post? That unexpected wave of referrals? They’re exciting, but they aren’t the standard. They’re the exception. And the mean- the average – always wins unless something structural changes.

That’s why single campaigns, random sprints, and shotgun tactics feel good…but don’t compound results.

The resistance isn’t a bug. It’s the feature. It’s a test the market is always making us take. If you’re not consistent, you won’t pass the test or see the compound effects.

Marketing Without a Base Rate = Gambling

Base rates in marketing mean tracking what happens on average, not just when the stars align. The goal is to keep raising your base rate, the mean, over time.

• What’s your true conversion rate over time?
• What’s the ROI of each content format after 6+ months?
• What are your year over year results after sticking with a clear, consistent program?

Without that data, you chase spikes and spend like a hobbyist, not a strategist.

What Consistency Actually Builds

Consistency doesn’t just get you more. It gets you better data.

That better data lets you:

• Optimize spend instead of guessing.
• Spot decay in a campaign before it nosedives.
• See which variables (offers, formats, messages) are driving real results.

It also builds authority. Familiarity. Trust. That’s how firms go from being a vendor to being the name people say in the first call.

The Problem Isn’t Regression. It’s Reaction.

Regression to the mean is a given. But most interpret it as failure, and then stop, shift gears, or flail for something new.

Maybe you were four months from breaking through, and you quit in month three.

The solution?

Consistency beats spikes. Systems beat luck.

How to Play the Long Game

1. Establish a Base Rate : Know your benchmarks. Track lead flow, conversion %, CPL, and revenue per campaign. Don’t celebrate spikes, study them. Improve the average.
2. Structure for Consistency: Build weekly publishing rhythms. Batch content. Automate outreach and follow-up where it makes sense. Do the unsexy stuff repeatedly.
3. Spot and Study Outliers: When something performs above average, dig in. Was it the story? The timing? The platform? Feed the loop with intention, not hope.
4. Train Yourself and Your Team to Expect the Mean and Work to Increase It: Celebrate the steady. The quiet months. The plateaus. That’s where real marketing mastery begins. Love the reps.

Final Thought: You Can’t Compound What You Don’t Continue

In finance, compound interest rewards patience. In marketing, compound trust does the same.

So when things dip? Don’t panic. Don’t pivot too soon. Just keep building.

Regression to the mean is real, but consistency raises the baseline.

See you next Saturday.